You Spin Me Right Around: My Math Lesson Today

Unemployment map produced by the Bureau of Lab...

Unemployment map produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics website (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Statistics.  The only course I ever failed at school.  Of  course it doesn’t  help that I’m no math genius. I let excel do the work for me at work – otherwise we’d be in deep sneakers fiscally  – just kidding.  As election day approaches, I wanted to put it out there to be careful.  The politicians continue to spin statistics and throw numbers at us. If you’re like me – it won’t make much sense.  Numbers don’t lie, but they can also be spun and tailored for whatever truth the politicos decide gets top billing this week; or this election year.

Here’s an example of where I get really really confused with statistics: Let’s say we start with a baseline of 1000 people.  The unemployment rate is 2.5% which means that 25 of those people are out of work. So far so good (well not for those 25 people but this is hypothetical anyway)  Then, we get the “news” that the unemployment rate has increased by 2.5%.  Here’s where my confusion starts: Is it an additional 2.5% of the baseline 1,000 people; or is it 2.5% of the 25 people who were originally out of work to start with?  You get very different numbers with these two scenarios:  In the first, the unemployment rate doubles – increasing to 5% or 50 out of the 1000  original people. In the second scenario the rate only increases by  1. (formula :  25 X 2.5% = 0.625 round up to 1)- or therefore 26 people out of the 1000. Which REALLY only means that unemployment went up 1%, not 2.5%. So  which number are they using for the determining baseline then –  25, or 1000? I think its fairly obvious why I failed statistics by now  😉  If I’ve made a mistake in my calculations can somebody please explain where I went wrong? My head is spinning – and the politicians haven’t even started their spinning yet.

When that starts, things get even more interesting.  The fear-mongers would, in the first scenario,  perhaps like us to believe that unemployment increased 100%. Using the standard formula to calculate percentages this would be correct  25 (2.5% of the thousand) divided by 25 (the increase of 2.5%) =1.00 – move the decimal right two places to get the percentage.  Less alarmist language would be “the unemployment rate has doubled”.  Also correct.  Which sound byte is the more worrisome? If you believe the worst case scenario, then who will you vote for – the person who you see got us into the mess? Or the person who “says” they have a plan, and the tools to fix the problem? I’m skeptical towards both, at best.

I like to look at the raw numbers and put them into context before I start to worry. In other words, I’d rather interpret for myself than have somebody do it for me (if I’m invested in the issue)   Statistics in its most basic form is merely interpretation – and there’s always, always more than one way to interpret anything. Even numbers. Here are some actual numbers I got from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  How should this table be interpreted then:   bureau of labor statistics  ?

In my interpretation, we haven’t had a “good” year for unemployment since 2008 – the last time the unemployment rate was below 6%. I did the math for the March figures and they are correct – provided the raw numbers are accurate to start with.   There’s a potential labor force of 155 million* theoretically,  they are supporting 243 million*  themselves included. The actual number of people currently working is 142 million* folks.  or 58% of the population  -supporting themselves and the other 42%.   (and its not much support at all when its only a percentage of taxable wages that go into unemployment and welfare benefits)  Also please note that these figures do not include anyone under 16; or anyone here illegally and receiving any assistance benefits – so the actual number of people being supported by those 142 million workers is much higher. There’s currently about 13 million* people out of work in this country -8.2% of the work force – & 88 million* people who either cannot work, or don’t want to work. (they’ve opted out of the workforce for whatever reasons) That’s a HUGE burden on the employed.   We need to move our citizens towards greater self sufficiency.  The 60/40 split really isn’t working.  Any way you want to spin it  – it’s simply unacceptable.  And now, I’m worried….

In this election year my advice – for what its worth – is to Question Everything; and get people in Congress who want to work for US.   Here endeth the real lesson.  Peace, out.

*I rounded numbers up or down to the nearest million for simplification. 16 years of age or older.

Advertisements

20 thoughts on “You Spin Me Right Around: My Math Lesson Today

  1. Want more confusion? Let’s assume 10 million unemployed, 10%unemployment rate.
    2.5% increase in rate equals 25% increase in unemployed!
    2.5% more unemployed is new rate of 10.25%.
    Doubled unemployment to 20million is 100% increase. Go back to 10million unemployed, that is a 50%percent decrease!

    Confused yet? I am!

    • My oldest made an excellent point in regard to my first example with the thousand people. If unemployment increases BY (by being the key word) then the increase is calculated using my second scenario of “25 X 2.5% = 0.625 round up to 1)- or therefore 26 people out of the 1000”. If unemployment increases 2.5% then it doubles – or increases BY 100%. She’s so smart!

  2. Question EVERYTHING! Always keep in mind my favorite statement from my statistics professor. ” statistics lie, and staticians are liars” . Simply put, numbers can be made to say anything you want them to say.

    Unemployment is currently 8.2% per BLS. Well it’s not, really. They seasonally adjust the numbers using a thousand formulas to adjust for summer work vs winter, holiday employment, etc etc.
    Secondly they only “count” those actively looking for work. If you are discouraged, have a temp health issue, are visiting grandma, etc you are not counted as unemployed. One sure way to no longer be counted as unemployed, is to exhaust all your unemployment benefits.

    How does BLS determine percentage? They weekly poll about 1000 people.

    True unemployment ranges 16-20% or more, and you will occasionally see someone talk about the number.

    Therefor after all this, it should be clear that the unemployment number is a super wild a– guess, at best.

    Does that help you feel better about our pols in DC?

    • The 88 million I mentioned includes those not looking for, or unable to work. Yep those numbers can be spun any which way but loose….. Glad you liked the post. I was on a roll today…. God pity my office mates while I spouted off…

      • Sure do. I’m not a
        “lefty” by any means, but the repubs and Mittens Romney scare the hell out of me.

        • all of them scare the hell out of me, they’re ALL beholden to the lobbyists and the cash cow special interest groups…. including big oil and banking.

          • True, but do keep in mind their protesting to the contrary, the Repubs as a party are indeed conducting a war on women, not only at Mittens level, but at the states levels attacking women’s health issues, and equal pay rights. That alone is enough to make me go against them.

          • At least Santorum’s gone. He REALLY scared me. I’m Catholic and don’t believe in abortion as a convenience birth control but I certainly don’t think its anyones business outside the doctors office or the confessional (if one were so inclined) I hate it when men try to tell women whats best for them. My friend Lisa would probably be alive today if her male doctor hadn’t dismissed her ovarian cancer symptoms as “constipation”….

          • Luv the nickname, although I’d like to take credit, it comes from columnist Maureen Dowd.

          • HeHeHe Im now having problems with my facebook and twitter connections on here. The publicize feature appears to be majorly glitching. WordPress keeps telling me I have to reauthorize twitter when it says its already connected. I should have 375 facebook “Followers” yet only 25 of them are showing up in my stats, no idea which 25 either LOL. Its weird. once fb and the blog are linked all my fb friends are considered followers because the’ll get a link to my posts in their newsfeeds. I’m no social butterfly but I find it difficult to believe 350 people unsubscribed from me all at the same time…. like I said weird. Gahhhh…. technology….

          • Thats why I don’t have Facebook, Twitter, Twiddle Dee Dee, Twiddle Dee Dum, you tube, me tube, paper tube, or whatever. Too much hassle. Besides, I’m in the minor leagues with 32 total followers!!!

          • I’m giggling again…. you tube me tube paper tube….. Methinks that wordpress doth have a major glitch and the sharing service is definitely not working properly.

          • Didn’t they just announce that feature today?

            BTW, what are you doing up so late. I know you don’t need beauty sleep, but you do need rest for work, right? Remember, I am a free soul, released from the chains of work…

          • Thanks for the reminder oh thou with all the leisure time…. (I’m jealous) yeah I gotta hit the rack soon. I got sucked into the blog vortex – which is better than a borg vortex – where I would get assimilated lol….

          • publicize has been a feature for awhile. I just started having major issues with it today and it looks like I’m not the only one (the support forum is getting complaints)

Leave a Reply - Please and Thanks!

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s